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MARKET: Four Major Tops. One Recurring Pattern. Reef the Sails.

By RecessionALERT on June 1, 2026 in Research Papers

Every major market top of the modern era announced itself the same way: not with one alarm but with a cluster ringing at once. Stretched valuations, the narrowest single-name leadership of any modern top, professional cash below its own contrarian sell trigger, a quarter of the index already in private bear markets, and a credit structure as loose as 2007. Measured against 1999, 2007, and 2021, mid-2026 is the densest such reading since the dot-com peak. So reef the sails.

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Fingerprints of a short-term market top

By RecessionALERT on November 18, 2014 in Research Papers

The SP-500 has rallied sharply since the 15th October bottom, recovering all her losses in a shorter time than it took to incur them. It was a very rare display of the opposite behavior to the norm where “the bull climbs the staircase and the bear comes down the elevator”, since in this case, the bear came down the elevator but the bull climbed up on a rocket. The question that now naturally arises is if this rally has gone […]

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