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Adjusting Fed Funds Rate for QE to predict rate cycle direction changes

By RecessionALERT on June 12, 2019 in Research Papers

The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate) is the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in an account at a Federal Reserve bank. Any money in their reserve that exceeds the required level is available for lending to other banks that might have a shortfall. The chart below tracks the Fed Funds […]

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Yellen Labor Dashboard reaches target

By RecessionALERT on August 12, 2015 in Reflections

“Full Employment” target reached Shortly after taking up office, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on this dashboard had not recovered to levels reached before the last recession, reinforcing her belief that the economy would need “extraordinary support” from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” It […]

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Yellen’s Labor Dashboard suggests tightening in 2016

By RecessionALERT on April 4, 2014 in Reflections

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on this dashboard have not recovered to levels reached before the last recession, reinforcing her belief that the economy will need “extraordinary support” from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” It appears the Federal Reserve has changed emphasis from […]

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