FOMC March 2026 | RecessionAlert

Tag Archives | FOMC March 2026

MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade

By RecessionALERT on March 17, 2026 in Reflections

Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.

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MIB: Q4 GDP Revised to 0.7%, Iran Vows Hormuz Shut, S&P Posts Third Weekly Loss, Adobe CEO Exits

By RecessionALERT on March 13, 2026 in Reflections

Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz closure permanent; WTI near $100 for second straight day. Q4 GDP revised to +0.7% — stagflation trap confirmed. S&P 500 records third consecutive weekly loss, Nasdaq -0.68%. Adobe (ADBE) -7.5% as CEO Narayen exits after 18 years despite record Q1 beat. Trump’s Russia oil sanctions relief fails, allies furious. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — Powell’s stagflation signal is next week’s defining risk.

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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm

By RecessionALERT on March 11, 2026 in Reflections

Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.

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MIB: Iran Missile Strike Sends Oil to $81, Airlines Crater, and Broadcom’s $100B AI Target Holds the Nasdaq Floor

By RecessionALERT on March 5, 2026 in Reflections

Iran fires missile at US oil tanker; WTI surges 8% to $81, sending the Dow down 784 points. Airlines crash — UAL -6%, DAL -5% — as fuel shock materializes. Energy sector breaks to 52-week highs on oil windfall. AVGO +4.8% validated AI supercycle with CEO targeting $100B chip revenue by 2027. VIX spikes 19% to 25.26. February NFP jobs report Friday — the week’s defining moment.

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