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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed — 92K Jobs Vanish, WTI Hits $88, and Trump Demands Iran’s Unconditional Surrender

By RecessionALERT on March 6, 2026 in Reflections

Feb payrolls -92K (S&P -1.3%), worst miss in years — unemployment jumped to 4.4%. Trump demands Iran ‘unconditional surrender’; WTI surged to $88 as Hormuz stays shut (Day 7). GDPNow crashed to 2.1% from 3.0% in four days. MRVL +23.2% on AI data center blowout. Fed cuts repriced to July; markets now price two 2026 cuts. The Market Intelligence Brief is a disciplined approach to daily market analysis. Using AI-assisted curation, we filter thousands of financial stories down to 15-20 […]

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MIB: Hormuz Crisis Day 3 — Oil +15%, Stagflation Signal Flashes, Fed Pulls Back on Rate Cuts

By RecessionALERT on March 3, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell. The Market Intelligence Brief is a disciplined approach to daily market analysis. Using AI-assisted curation, we filter […]

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MIB: US-Israeli Strikes Kill Iran’s Khamenei, Qatar LNG Halted, Oil Surges 8% — Dell’s AI Blowout and the Stagflation Trap

By RecessionALERT on March 2, 2026 in Reflections

US-Israeli “Operation Roaring Lion” kills Khamenei; Iran drones shut Qatar’s LNG plant. Oil surges 8.3% to $72.57 as Hormuz fears grip markets. S&P 500 cut intraday losses to close flat; VIX +12% to 22.40. Airlines cratered: AAL -7.4%, CCL -10%. Energy and defense surged: XOM +4.7%, PLTR +6.6%. Dell soared 22% Friday on AI server blowout ($43B backlog). ISM Manufacturing beat at 52.4 — but Prices Paid hit 70.5, an inflation alarm. The Market Intelligence Brief is a disciplined approach […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.