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MIB: WTI -9.5%, S&P Reclaims 200-DMA, Gold Unwinds as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Muddy the Picture

By RecessionALERT on March 23, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crashed 9.5% after Trump announced a 5-day pause on Iran strikes — but markets rallied, S&P 500 +1.15% back near 6,580. Gold shed 3.6% as safe-haven bids unwound. Palantir +6.7% on a Pentagon Maven AI contract. S&P reclaimed the 200-DMA after a 3-day streak below. GDPNow slipped to 2.0%, its lowest this cycle. Bitcoin +4.5% to $71K.

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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade

By RecessionALERT on March 17, 2026 in Reflections

Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.

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MIB: Iran Missile Strike Sends Oil to $81, Airlines Crater, and Broadcom’s $100B AI Target Holds the Nasdaq Floor

By RecessionALERT on March 5, 2026 in Reflections

Iran fires missile at US oil tanker; WTI surges 8% to $81, sending the Dow down 784 points. Airlines crash — UAL -6%, DAL -5% — as fuel shock materializes. Energy sector breaks to 52-week highs on oil windfall. AVGO +4.8% validated AI supercycle with CEO targeting $100B chip revenue by 2027. VIX spikes 19% to 25.26. February NFP jobs report Friday — the week’s defining moment.

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MIB: Senate Clears Iran Strikes, Services PMI Hits 4-Year High, and Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles to $8.4B

By RecessionALERT on March 4, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.

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