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MIB: Iran Holds Hormuz, Section 301 Targets 16 Nations, Private Credit Cracks & FOMC March 18 in Crosshairs

By RecessionALERT on March 12, 2026 in Reflections

Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz stays shut; oil briefly tops $100/bbl as IEA’s 400M barrel release fails. S&P 500 -1.52% to YTD low; VIX spikes to 27.29. Trump launches Section 301 probes into 16 nations as Canada’s 25% steel tariffs lock in. Private credit cracks: Morgan Stanley gates $8B fund, Deutsche Bank flags $30B exposure. Dollar General -7.8% despite earnings beat. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — dot plot in spotlight.

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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm

By RecessionALERT on March 11, 2026 in Reflections

Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.

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MIB: Iran Day 11 — False Hormuz Tweet, Oracle AI Blowout, and Tomorrow’s Defining CPI Print

By RecessionALERT on March 10, 2026 in Reflections

Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.

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MIB: Oil Crosses $100, Record G7 SPR Release, FOMC Blackout Begins & February CPI Due Tomorrow

By RecessionALERT on March 9, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude breached $100/bbl intraday (peak $119) — biggest oil supply disruption in history. G7+IEA authorized a record 300-400M barrel SPR release. Trump told CBS “war is very complete” — Dow swung from -900 to +239 in hours (S&P +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%). NOC +6%, LMT hit all-time high as defense broke out. CCL -6%, RCL -4% as cruise lines bled. Oracle reports tonight; February CPI drops tomorrow.

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