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MIB Daily: Free Cash Flow Is the New AI Scorecard and Alphabet Failed It, Erasing $500 Billion as Healthcare and Real Estate Led, the 10-Year Fell Below 5% on a 3.4% GDP Beat and Crude Held Above $100 on Iran Risk

By RecessionALERT on October 29, 2026 in Reflections

Alphabet’s worst day since its 2004 listing (-12.64%) on negative free cash flow erased roughly $500 billion and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38%, yet four in five S&P 500 stocks rose. Q3 GDP beat at 3.4% and PCE inflation matched at 3.6%; the 10-year fell 11.7 bps to 4.934%. Microsoft launched a $25 billion-plus bond sale. DoorDash (+5.61%) agreed to buy Instacart for $17 billion. CENTCOM briefed Trump on Iran military options; crude ended flat above $100.

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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week

By RecessionALERT on September 10, 2026 in Reflections

WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.

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MIB Daily: GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% as AI Spending Meets Its Reckoning — Brent’s Run to $100 Leaves the Fed No Room, Energy Alone Gains

By RecessionALERT on July 23, 2026 in Reflections

Alphabet and Tesla cratered — GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% — after both guided capex well above expectations, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.87%. Brent crude topped $100/bbl as Houthi strikes hit Saudi tankers, opening a second Red Sea front alongside the Hormuz standoff. Rate markets threw a tantrum — July hike odds near 47%, September at 82% — as jobless claims hit a 1969 low leave the Fed with zero cover on oil-driven inflation. Oracle slid despite nearing a $20B Meta deal.

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