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MIB Daily: Democrats Sweep and the Dow Jumps 3.03% as Wall Street Prices Gridlock, Big Tech and Medicaid Insurers Win While Oil, Defense and Vistra Sink, but a 78% Fed Hike Still Rides on Friday’s Payrolls

By RecessionALERT on November 4, 2026 in Reflections

Democrats sweep Congress and the Dow jumps 3.03%, its best day since at least April 15, as the VIX sinks 20%. Crude plunges more than 8% on bets the Iran war ends sooner, the 10-year falls 7.3 bps and gold climbs 3.34%. The AI trade splits: Microsoft and Amazon surge, Vistra sinks 13.83%. Centene soars 12.64% on Medicaid hopes; CVS plans a split. Yet ADP beats and ISM prices hold at 73, keeping another Fed hike priced.

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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm

By RecessionALERT on March 11, 2026 in Reflections

Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.

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