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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week

By RecessionALERT on September 10, 2026 in Reflections

WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.

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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed — 92K Jobs Vanish, WTI Hits $88, and Trump Demands Iran’s Unconditional Surrender

By RecessionALERT on March 6, 2026 in Reflections

Feb payrolls -92K (S&P -1.3%), worst miss in years — unemployment jumped to 4.4%. Trump demands Iran ‘unconditional surrender’; WTI surged to $88 as Hormuz stays shut (Day 7). GDPNow crashed to 2.1% from 3.0% in four days. MRVL +23.2% on AI data center blowout. Fed cuts repriced to July; markets now price two 2026 cuts.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.