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Archive | April 1, 2026

MIB: Iran Off-Ramp Sparks Risk-On Rally While SpaceX Goes Public and the Energy Trade Unwinds

By RecessionALERT on April 1, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talk sends S&P +0.72%, WTI below $100 for first time in weeks. SpaceX files confidential IPO at $1.75T valuation — could be largest in history. Intel reclaims Irish fab from Apollo for $14.2B; INTC +8.79%, chip sector surges. Lilly’s Foundayo becomes first oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill (LLY +3.78%). IEA warns April oil supply crisis twice as bad as March. Trump floats NATO exit; XOM -5.23%, CVX -4.59%.

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Multiple Molecule Shocks. Four Cascades. One Strait.

By RecessionALERT on April 1, 2026 in Research Papers

The Hormuz blockade has produced not one commodity shock but many — oil, gas, urea, ammonia, phosphate, sulfur, helium — each molecule trapped behind 21 miles of water, each with its own cascade into the real economy. Markets are treating this as an oil story. It is not. Oil has a strategic reserve. None of the others do. The world’s two largest fertilizer supply sources — the Gulf and Russia — are simultaneously constrained from two entirely separate conflicts, at the start of the Northern Hemisphere planting season. This time, there is no backstop and no Russia to call.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.