1.Introduction In the three days following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2, 2025, dubbed “Liberation Day,” the U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic downturn, often referred to as the “Trump Tariff Tantrum.” (TTT) The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 2,200 points, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 5% and the Nasdaq falling close to 6% by April 4, erasing post-election gains and wiping out an estimated $5-6.4 trillion in market value. The tariffs, including a […]

Economic Wrap is a quarterly series aimed at taking an objective, evidence-based balanced view snapshot of the US and Global economies – which of course has major implications on all stock markets. It references publicly available data at the time as well as more advanced or sophisticated proprietary models from RecessionALERT that are not publicly available. In summary, the analysis below provides an evidence-based analysis of the U.S. and global economies, highlighting a complex outlook. The U.S. labor market remains […]