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Archive | November, 2022

USMLEI Oct-2022 Published

By RecessionALERT on November 30, 2022 in Reflections

The U.S Monthly Leading Economic Index (USMLEI) PDF report for October 2022 has just been published in Reports Centre. The USMLEI plunged in October from -9.3 to -19.7, printing its 4th negative print. The USSHORT (short leading index) went from +5.1 to -7.4, its first recession print. The USLONG (long leading index) went from -32.2 to -37.8, its 7th negative print. Using the average/median lead times of the various models, together with how long they have already been in recession territory, […]

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Is this bear market in stocks over?

By RecessionALERT on November 24, 2022 in Reflections

Without a doubt, a U.S recession appears to be baked into the cake. We can’t say it is going to be severe, but what we can say is that the indicators suggest it will be non-trivial: The big question on everyone’s minds though, is if the US stock market has fully discounted for this and if the bear market bottom is in. Our research on the common factors observed at recessionary bear market bottoms shows that only 3 of the […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.