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Archive | July, 2019

We likely avoided a full yield-curve inversion

By RecessionALERT on July 31, 2019 in Reflections

In our early June post “Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?” we mused that only portions of the term-spread complex had inverted and most likely would remain that way, allowing us to avoid a full scale term-spread inversion. As the chart below shows, this is indeed the case – with only 50% of […]

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Google Search Trends as Recession Forecasting Tool

By RecessionALERT on July 29, 2019 in Research Papers

With the emergence of Google as the dominant internet search engine, its search-term usage can provide a real-time view of current public interests in numerous issues such as economics, politics, health and so forth. Thus, if large groups of people are entering certain economically-linked search terms, this could provide a clue about the general public’s […]

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