November | 2013 | RecessionAlert

Archive | November, 2013

FED in the driving seat

By RecessionALERT on November 25, 2013 in Reflections

The chart below shows how the FED is firmly in the driving seat for the U.S stock markets through the monthly growth of their balance sheet, primarily through the purchase of U.S Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. You can clearly see why talk of tapering sends shudders down everyone’s spine: It is interesting to note that in the prior economic expansion, the economy and company earnings clearly were in the driving seat – the good old days when good news […]

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Labor Market flags U.S Recession on horizon

By RecessionALERT on November 11, 2013 in Reflections

Labor data last week surprised to the upside and pointed to an improvement in hiring and by implication the labor market. However, our leading Labor Market Growth Index, which tracks various diversified aspects of the general U.S labor market, experienced a sharp drop for the data representing the end of October 2013, to below the zero growth line. This is typically a signal for recession in 5-9 months time. However, we normally smooth the raw monthly data to cater for […]

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Things could get fun from here…

By RecessionALERT on November 8, 2013 in Reflections

At last, a decent pullback with a fat red candle on the SP-500. If the premise (see “Seven Paw-prints of the Bear“) is that we are in a well established bull market (we don’t care if its liquidity or economically fueled) then this could become a desperately needed “buy on the dip” opportunity to get aboard the train if were not already on it, or place additional funds into the market. Firstly, the big red candle on the SP-500 has not […]

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