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MARKETS: Bull Flows. Bear Physics. One Timeline.

By RecessionALERT on April 23, 2026 in Research Papers

For three years the US equity market ignored soft recession signals and was arguably right to. It now faces its first hard signal — the largest oil supply disruption in history — and thirteen consecutive up-days into a Federal Reserve pause suggest the same mechanisms that dismissed the soft signals may dismiss it. Mechanical buyers carry the tape. Demand destruction already sits in the weekly data. Q2 earnings are the collision point. Between now and late August, the market will answer.

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