RecessionAlert

Over multiple business cycles, RecessionALERT has informed institutional, family office & private investors in advance of the risks & probabilities of a U.S recession and coupled this with U.S stock market allocation & important ETF market-timing strategies using a broad range of quantitative econometric & statistical models. We do this through one weekly and seven monthly econometric reports & leading indicators in PDF format, intraday & daily updated charts & heads-up-displays, as well as insightful subscriber-only research. In addition to regular posts to our market commentary blog, subscribers receive regular emailed market observations & important alerts, direct from our analysts and research team.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.