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NBER’s Big-4 Indicators had a narrow miss

By RecessionALERT on August 12, 2016 in Reflections

Reading through all the positive press about jobs numbers and so forth, its hard to comprehend that the 4 main indicators used by the National Buro of Economic Research (NBER) to determine US recessions, had a narrow miss recently. If you recall from our popular 2012 article, the NBER does not define a recession in […]

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Retail sales data not supportive of recession

By RecessionALERT on October 16, 2012 in Reflections

The September RETAIL SALES component (RSAFS) of the NBER Recession Model was in today. It surprised to the upside as well as had an upward revision on the prior month. For the most part, this series has been revised downwards over time of late, but this does not necessarily equate to downward revisions to the […]

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