Tag Archives | market timing

The SP-500 200-day average “Goodbye Kiss”

Download article as PDF The SP-500 today has met back with its 200-day moving average after spending a “protracted period” of 46 trading days below it. Contrary to popular belief, history since 1972 shows this to be a bearish event, with more downside likely. Many participants on the stock markets like to use the 200-day […]

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Stresses are building up in the system

Download article as PDF Despite a steady rise in the SP-500 Index, clear and persistent financial stresses are starting to build up in the system. We construct a composite of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions […]

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Valuation estimate of SP500 2015 returns : 2,246 target

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and bonds […]

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Fingerprints of a short-term market top

Download article as PDF The SP-500 has rallied sharply since the 15th October bottom, recovering all her losses in a shorter time than it took to incur them. It was a very rare display of the opposite behavior to the norm where “the bull climbs the staircase and the bear comes down the elevator”, since […]

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Great Trough Detector Improvements

Download article as PDF You will notice a new layout for the Great Trough Detector (GTR) chart as shown below. The Signal Panel has been revised to be more intuitive and we have added a new count panel below that: 1. The Signal Panel The first task of this panel is to highlight your two […]

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“Baby” correction belies verocity of breadth sell-off

Download article as PDF The current stock market correction is diminutive in relative terms – hardly anything to sit up and take notice of. However an examination of underlying breadth deterioration reveals an astonishing plunge of the net new quarterly highs (the percentage of new quarterly highs less the percentage of new quarterly lows). This […]

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SP-500 Liquidity Crunch Warning

Download article as PDF Losses on the SP-500 on Friday 11th saw all our measures of breadth-liquidity fall into contraction, warning of a highly vulnerable market subject to further liquidity tightness and raised volatility. To many of my staff that actively trade the SP-500, this is treated  as a bona fide correction warning. If you […]

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Things could get fun from here…

Download article as PDF At last, a decent pullback with a fat red candle on the SP-500. If the premise (see “Seven Paw-prints of the Bear“) is that we are in a well established bull market (we don’t care if its liquidity or economically fueled) then this could become a desperately needed “buy on the dip” […]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust – The RecessionALERT Redux

Download article as PDF Martin  Zweig was an American stock investor, investment adviser, and financial analyst. According to Forbes Magazine, he was renowned for his “eccentric and lavish lifestyle” as well as having had the most expensive residence in the United States at the time, atop The Pierre on Fifth avenue in Manhattan.  He was […]

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Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing

Download article as PDF This project uses a composite approach to constructing a broad representation of selling pressure on the SP-500 Index, for the purposes of gauging intensity of corrections, identifying ideal buying points for “buy on the dip” opportunities and provision of warnings of oncoming corrections. The motivation behind using many measurements for selling […]

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SuperCycle Seasonal Timing Methodology for the SP-500

Download article as PDF MODEL UPDATE – 21 October 2013 The long-only strategy (STM L) is performing 1.7 times that of the SP-500 buy-&-hold whilst the long and short strategy (STM L+S)  is performing 3.1 times that of the SP-500 buy-&-hold since January 2009 (latter part of 2007-2013 out-of sample period.) Both models under-performed the […]

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Seven Paw-prints of the Bear

Download article as PDF For decades, investors have sought out methods to detect oncoming bear markets. With this current bull market now in its 5th year the subject has become even more topical – “Has the bull market still got legs?” is a question pondered every day by millions of investors. In this research note, […]

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The SP500 Market Timing project

Download article as PDF Currently, RecessionALERT subscribers deploy the Recession Forecasting Ensemble (RFE) to match  their equity allocation to recession risk. But the assumption in our RFE research note was that you would simply “buy and hold” the stock market during periods of low recession risk. This provided for far superior risk-adjusted returns across many […]

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