About RecessionALERT

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science (BSc Hons) university degree majoring in computer science, math & statistics and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.
Author Archive | RecessionALERT

Coronavirus Recession likely ended in June

In this exercise, we examine the current behavior of various of our US leading economic indexes to past history to determine a likely recession exit date. The charts we display below are automatically displayed (depending on your selections) in the monthly data file Analysis Tool that is published for PRO subscribers, and can be found […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Summary of Service Additions & Improvements

We wish to highlight the following recent additions and improvements since April 2019, to our subscriber deliverables, as well as highlight some older features you may not be aware of. 1.Alerts archive Many subscribers do not know that you can access a multi-year chronological archive of end-of-day alerts from the REPORTS>ALERTS tab. 2. Stock Market […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

US Economic Recovery update

NOTE : All the charts displayed below are updated daily/weekly and available for subscribers from the various chart menus. Since the peak daily infection rate of over 75,000 achieved on 17 July 2020, daily infections fell consistently to a trough of just over 20,000 on 8 September 2020. During this period, US national economic mobility […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Post-Covid19 Economic Recovery Tracker

Since the onset of Covid-19, there has been a lot of research (and release) of alternative (non traditional) high-frequency data to measure the extent of the economic collapse brought on by coronavirus lockdowns, as well as to measure the post-lockdown economic recovery. Think of Google, Apple and SafeGraph geolocation data to track movement of people […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Global Business Mobility remains in decline

Global Business Mobility, defined as GDP-weighted Google geolocation data of workplace less residential mobility for the 24 largest economies in the world, representing over two-thirds of global GDP, remains in decline despite a recent uptick: When excluding USA from the data, the situation appears even worse, as depicted by the second chart above showing steeper […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Global V-shaped recovery stopped in its tracks

The US State and G8 Mobility Charts have just been updated in the Covid menu. The U.S has seen a whopping increase in infections across a broad swathe of states since emerging from lockdown : As a result, US and state economic mobility has taken a huge hit. Although the US is only about 49% […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Headwinds increasing for the stock market

NOTE : All images and charts displayed below are regularly updated and available to subscribers from the CHARTS menu. The SP-500 has enjoyed an incredible 40% rally since the 23 March lows. This was mostly fueled by an unprecedented FED stimulus program, which is now coming to an end within the next few weeks: Unless […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

US enters 2nd wave of Covid19 infections

Note : Most charts shown below are available to subscribers in the COVID19 analytics section. Summary Economic mobility in US increasing at a slower pace than Covid-19 infections, contrary to rest of G7. At a state level, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Michigan are leading economic mobility recovery vs infections. US has moved from […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

NBER declares 2020 recession dates

The National Bureau for Economic Research (NBER) has announced official start dates for the 2020 US recession. It is very rare for such quick pronouncements (they are normally made 9-12 months after the fact) but the fact that 90% of the economy came to a sudden halt, has led to such deep declines in their […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Some updates & market observations

The STM Seasonality Model is a unique composite that looks at average monthly gains, gain-to-loss ratios and percentage of winning months for 1,2,3 and 4 year cycles to arrive at a composite seasonality score for each month. For the last 18 months, the model has been running at 80% directional accuracy on calls on the […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

SP-500 and Recessions

We examined SP-500 behavior in the lead to and during US recessions a few years ago in an old research note (Recession – Just how much warning is useful anyway?) to conclude that more than 5-months warning before a recession was not constructive, and that you should focus on recession warning models that stuck to […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

COVID19 Recession Warning

Businesses are going to be shuttered in massive numbers as the U.S has to deal with the unavoidable nationwide lock-down that will be required to contain the highly contagious Coronavirus. From our Covid19 Dashboard we maintain for our subscribers, we can see that the number of cases is rising according to a quadratic equation that […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

COVID-19 Global Pandemic is here

Further to our March 5th 2020 warning on a looming Coronavirus (COVID19)  global pandemic, the WHO has finally recognized as such and declared the outbreak an official global pandemic. It is not hard to see why, when one looks at the chart below: Whilst China has managed to stabilize new infections (assuming their numbers are […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

COVID-19 starting to look like a global pandemic

The newly reported cases of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China appear to be tapering off, but it is the recent uptick of newly reported cases outside China that have reached alarming levels, resulting in total cases accelerating to just under 100,000: The secondary round of infections, most likely from travelers from China before the largest […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Massive rebound in US housing market

All 8 components of our comprehensive US Housing Market Index have posted solid and sustained gains in the last 6 months: Our detailed PDF report for Dec 2019 has been published to the REPORTS menu. According to many market watchers, there is no better barometer on the health of the U.S. economy than housing. It’s […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Recession Probability Enhancements

The RecessionALERT USMLEI (US Monthly Leading Economic Index) is a 21-factor monthly leading index for the US economy. It is described in detail in this research note. Up until now, we had deployed a standard Probit statistical model to track implied recession probabilities of the USMLEI. Whilst the Probit models still provide a reasonable lead-time […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

We found some worrying signs in labor data

These days, its really hard to find worrying signs in US labor data. If one looks at the once famous Janet Yellen Labor Dashboard, apart from Job Openings, everything looks to be progressing fine, bar a small pullback here and there: Sure, the employment-to-population ratio (participation) has not come close to peak achieved in the […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

The Market & Economic Dashboard

The Dashboard provides an all-in-one at-a-glance “pilots view” of all the important short-term market liquidity indicators and the long-term US macroeconomic situation. It consists of radial gauges where Green areas imply no danger (or bullish) and red areas denote danger zones (or bearish). Orange areas denote neutral (neither bullish nor bearish). The gauges all move […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Analyzing SP-500 Seasonal Trends

For this research, we examine annual, bi-annual, tri-annual and quadrennial cyclical seasonal characteristics of SP500 monthly closing prices since 1957 and show how to combine all these cycles into a single powerful seasonal indicator. The annual cycle consists of a single phase of 12 months which comprise the historical statistical record of 63 cycles. The […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

U.S economy likely dodged a bullet

For two years, our comprehensive U.S monthly Leading Index (USMLEI) has been deteriorating, more recently to worrisome levels, with exactly half of the 23 components now in recession territory: What was really alarming was that this was occurring against the background of elevated RAVI local stock market valuations, an inverted yield curve, a deteriorating Global […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

 IMPORTANT : IN ORDER TO SYNCHRONIZE WITH PUBLICATION EVERY 2ND AND 4TH WEEK OF A MONTH, THE NEXT SUPERINDEX REPORT DATED FRIDAY 9TH FEBRUARY WILL BE PUBLISHED ON MONDAY 12TH FEB 2024. THE REPORT AFTER THAT WILL BE MONDAY 26TH FEBRUARY, THEN MONDAY 11TH MARCH, THEN MONDAY 25TH MARCH THEN MONDAY 8 APRIL.