Archive | May, 2013

World Recession Update – May 2013

Download article as PDF We have first quarter 2013 GDP data for about 53% of the OECD countries list. The full World Economy Report is available from the MEMBERS downloads section in the WORLD REPORT tab. There are a number of interesting observations we can make this month. The first is that whilst the percentage […]

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The SP500 Market Timing project

Download article as PDF Currently, RecessionALERT subscribers deploy the Recession Forecasting Ensemble (RFE) to match  their equity allocation to recession risk. But the assumption in our RFE research note was that you would simply “buy and hold” the stock market during periods of low recession risk. This provided for far superior risk-adjusted returns across many […]

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Atypical Global Recovery underway

Download article as PDF Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound. Also noteworthy this month is that the percentage of […]

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