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Archive | May, 2013

World Recession Update – May 2013

By RecessionALERT on May 26, 2013 in Reflections

We have first quarter 2013 GDP data for about 53% of the OECD countries list. The full World Economy Report is available from the MEMBERS downloads section in the WORLD REPORT tab. There are a number of interesting observations we can make this month. The first is that whilst the percentage of economies experiencing a […]

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Atypical Global Recovery underway

By RecessionALERT on May 20, 2013 in Reflections

Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound. Also noteworthy this month is that the percentage of countries with rising LEI’s […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.